Aaron's choice: The good, the bad, and the unthinkable

As we’ve been asked to chime in with our own personal predictions for the drop, I thought now was as good a time as any to show my hand. With eight games left this season the league table is as tight as ever (it wouldn’t surprise me to see West Ham make a late push for the title!) So it’s rather hard to pick three teams, I’ll probably end up wrong, in fact, I pray I’m wrong with one of my choices (no particular order by the way)

Blackpool

There’s a slight bit of bias in this one I must admit; as a Villa fan I still can’t quite get over Mr. Holloways comments that we are a “half-arsed club who used to be famous” (the irony that he later spoke highly of Liverpool was not lost on me). All I have to say is, if you’re gonna put yourself on a pedestal, make it a damn sight more stable than Bloomfield Road; even Holloway's fragile frame could collapse the shaky foundations of that “half-arsed stadium”.

Ian Holloway in a rare moment of not talking complete shit.

Of course, I wouldn’t base my opinion that they’re due for the chop solely on comments by Monsieur Holloway, their brand of attacking football, which started as a revelation, has quickly lead to less and less points on the board. The result against Tottenham was impressive, until you realize that Tottenham had enough chances in those ninety minutes to win 38 games. There’s more than a whiff of Hull about the seasiders, and with the lack of that all-important home form then I can see them going one better (or worse, depending on how you look at it) than the Tigers’ debut season and sliding straight out of the “best league in the world” ©Every pretentious bastard who works for the Premier League.

Wigan

Ah, Wigan. The Lactics. The physical embodiment of mediocrity. Support that would make Bolton fans feel smug,  and a narcissistic owner who probably cries into one of his overpriced football shirts every time he remembers the day he turned down Manchester United. In Wigan’s defence, they have a bright young manager in Martinez, and a good pool of players picked up by the current regime, as well as the ones left over from Steve Bruce’s time in charge. Unfortunately Wigan’s main problem would be their consistency, or lack of it to be accurate. It’s all well and good to get a draw against one of the big teams, but if you can’t follow it up with a win against your fellow strugglers then it can only end one way. That last point brings me nicely to my final pick for relegation.

Aston Villa

Yep, Villa. As I mentioned in the previous paragraph, 2-2 draws with Manchester United and 3-3 draws against Chelsea are all well and good, but when you have teams like Sunderland doing the double over you, and a home loss against a home sick Wolves side, then there isn’t much in this league for you. Everything about our position defies belief, looking at the players we have, it’s hard to see why exactly we’re in this position.

Oh, that's why.

A team of England players (admittedly fringe players) that has been added to with goalscoring machine Darren Bent and the silky skills of Jean II Makoun should only be looking up, but this has not happened. I’m not going to get caught up in the current “Houllier out” campaign that a lot of Villa supporters are rooting of at the minute, with eight games left it’s far too late to risk such a change (Newcastle’s brief fling with Alan Shearer as manager springs to mind) and I truly believe, based on the signings we made in January, that Houllier, given a proper pre-season, will see us back to those glory days of 6^th place and the odd Wembley appearance.  The worrying thing about Villa is that we had one of the easiest run-ins of all the teams at the bottom, on paper we’d have been expected to beat Bolton and Wolves, as well as Blackburn, but it’s not happening. No matter how long we wait, Villa cannot gather any momentum, even West Ham have shown themselves capable of winning three or four games in a row, whereas we struggle to win two. I really hope I’m wrong, and I’ve picked Villa today in the hope that I’ve somehow jinxed it and some higher power will keep them up just so I’m wrong. But as it stands, with us unable to win the easiest games, and with our final two games being Liverpool, and a match with Arsenal that could potentially decide whether or not they end their wait for a Premier League trophy, it’s hard to see any other way but down for my beloved club.

I really hope I’m wrong; I’m not looking forward to having to sift through the football league show for Villa highlights. At least it’ll force me to broaden my admittedly poor knowledge of the Championship.

Not pictured: Dignity

-Aaron

My Three Picks for the Drop

Approximately £30 million. That’s how much the three teams who lose their Premier League status stand to lose this season. All fans like to play the predicting game, and without doubt the three names you pick will change on more than one occasion throughout the season. At The Terrace Talk we’ve been playing the same game and because we couldn’t agree we all decided to post our picks.

First of all it seems Wigan Athletic look destined for the drop and I won't miss them. It’s a shame because Roberto Martinez has done a great job and I think he’s one of the most talented young managers in the English game. Unfortunately Martinez and chairmen Dave Whelan are at a team whose fans care more about tries than goals. At times their team can play fantastic football, for instance against Manchester City recently. Wigan outplayed City for the majority of the game but lacked that killer touch in the final third and as for the back, don’t get me started. This is the tried and tested formula for relegation. Look at Tony Mowbray’s West Brom team. They played fantastic football but couldn't finish teams off. It eventually led to their demise and I can’t help but feel the same towards a Wigan team, who in all honesty have flirted with the drop for the past couple of seasons now.

The second team I think will be plying their trade in the second tier of English football are Blackpool. First of all I need to say how much I’ve enjoyed their debut season in the Premier League and hope my prediction is wrong. Ian Holloway and his men have been a breath of fresh air and their c'est la vie attitude has been a joy to watch, but recent form suggests that the team is on a downward spiral. Charlie Adam, DJ Campbell and others have played exceptionally but the team have really punched above their weight. Despite the odd result, Tottenham for example, teams seem to have developed ways to handle their all out attack.

Finally and probably most controversially my third choice is Birmingham City. First I want it noted that my allegiance to Aston Villa has completely nothing to do with this... really. Birmingham have had a massive season. The Carling Cup victory will live long in the memory for all Birmingham fans but since then their league form has not been brilliant. All season their results have been built on keeping clean sheets and pinching goals at the other end. Recent performances have shown a defence that in all honesty looks tired and is leaking goals. It’s understandable considering the season they’ve had, but unfortunately at the end of the season tiredness isn’t an excuse. McLeish must find a way to combat this quick or his team will be staring relegation direct in the face. 

The power and financial incentives the Premier League offers has now led to a ‘make or break’ attitude adopted by most sides. It’s a dangerous game to play, just ask Leeds fans. For teams like Wigan and Blackpool this might be the last time they reach the holy grail that is the Premier League, such is the gulf in talent. Finally I'd like to wish the three teams joining the express train that is the Premier League good luck, you'll need it.

-Paul